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New Hampshire Primaries Update January 7, 2008
The independents in New Hampshire are basically going to split down the middle, half going to McCain, half to Obama, though a few independents will go elsewhere. But by and large the independents will split 50/50 to both Obama and McCain. Hilary won’t get as much out of the Independents as she was hoping for; not as many of their votes as she needs.
Obama: It’s going to be easier for Obama to win this one in New Hampshire now after the last debate. It didn’t look good for Hilary-that last New Hampshire debate made her look desperate and somewhat cruel, cool and disingenuous in the public’s eyes. However, she still has her supporters and ‘base’ but the rest of the country is not impressed with her and feels that she isn’t as warm or genuine as Obama. Obama, who may not be perfect or as skilled in all things but people trust him overall to be more thoughtful and caring about things that are important to them and more approachable.
Hilary: Hilary is a hard worker and believes in ‘getting it done’ but she just doesn’t ‘feel’ the American people who are struggling to believe in politics and politicians again. There is a disconnect between her agenda and people feeling a need to connect with a person, with a real human being that is on their level and who is clear enough to reach them. She’s not able to reach people, though she works very hard at it.
People feel a distance from politics and their ambassadors these days. They feel estranged a lot of the time. Obama builds a better bridge than most to help heal that fissure and fill in the gap, makes it easier for people for people to trust in their politicians who will represent them, which is in the end all the majority really want; a solid and strong candidate who is not polished and distant from them who will be understanding of their plight and knowledgeable enough to bring in real and lasting solutions addressing the issues. They feel Obama is trustworthy more or less in relation to other politicians they are looking at.
Expect Obama to do well in New Hampshire and come out on top, in first place. Hilary will take 2nd place, John Edwards a close 3rd.
John Edwards: This primary in New Hampshire is a very interesting time for him; he’s learning that people want someone ‘ignited’ and charismatic, not just polished and good natured as he’s been all along; skilled, good with people in general and polite. People want someone who shows he/she has the power to change things and make real differences in the White House and beyond. But they’re not quite so interested in the lobbyists only; that holds some interest true, but there is a bigger need as seen by most people, in the war on terrorism, job insecurity areas, oil etc.. John is more worried about cleaning out the White House of dirty lobbyists it seems to most men and women looking at him these days.
After the New Hampshire debate, he did show a new side of himself, more powerful, more positive and ‘engaged’. However most people do not trust he would do ‘an all around job’ as much as Obama would do, through and through and across the board in broader areas of ruling as a President. That’s why they would not vote him to be first here in New Hampshire. He is gaining some steam though and expect him to do well overall in the New Hampshire primaries; at least 3rd.
Republicans
John McCain: He’s very stable for the Republican New Hampshire voters, the ones who want stability; he’s their man. However there are many ‘the undecided’, amongst them independents, who are also looking over their shoulder at Obama and at Hilary Clinton too, because they do want change and not “the same old, same old”. McCain will win the Republican vote and be on top in the primaries here on the Republican side at the end of the day but Romney is also a contender here, though less strong and will follow behind McCain.
Romney: Romny is having difficulty after the Iowa results and caucus there. People were disappointed in him falling behind Huckabee and feel he’s not really ‘empowering himself’ very well or doing the leadership thing that he needs to do, to be a viable and powerful candidate for President. Though he has more supporters here than in Iowa (for sure) he’s not going to beat John McCain here, who is after all ‘the independent’s independent’ candidate, a man after their own hearts; solid, strong, able and non negotiating relative to what he thinks is best and right for the country moving forward. Certain Republicans especially, like that kind of man and Romney is not appearing to be as strong as McCain is to them right now in his characteristics and mannerisms.
Huckabee: Huckabee cannot win here in New Hampshire. He’s not very succinct in communicating a new message that New Hampshire voters (the undecided group) can relate to and coalesce around, feel good about. He doesn’t feel like a leader to New Hampshire people, or someone strong enough to be very tough when the going gets tough. They need a stronger leader than Huckabee, people here think. Romney is second as he shows some toughness (yet less likability) and McCain their top pick in terms of a strong leader personality, someone they feel will be with strength and resolve to get the job done, the changes necessary for Republican interests and viewpoints etc…
Giuliani: People like Giuliani but they don’t think he’s presidential or has it fully together but they like the man. He’s engaging, seems a thinker and to be ‘realistic’ also which they like about him and his ability to communicate the issues is a plus. But they’re not sure he could be ‘tough enough’ if need be, to be a real leader of strength and resolve, if push came to shove and if the country needed it. They worry that he may not be healthy too or ‘what if’ he has a relapse and gets sick again. Somehow they don’t feel he’s very strong (in appearance perhaps) as stocky John McCain who also survived his cancer.
Summary: Among Republicans, expect McCain to take first, Romney second, Huckabee 3rd with Giuliani following in fourth place here in New Hampshire.